The hottest panel business cycle may reverse upwar

2022-08-02
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The panel business cycle may reverse upward in 2014

the price of TV panels has been falling endlessly like a crash. People from all walks of life are worried about whether the panel business cycle/LCD cycle tft-lcdcrystalcycles will repeat the tragic situation in the second half of 2008? Xie qinyi, vice president of npddisplaysearch in Greater China, a market research institution, pointed out that the second half of 2008 should have been the worst period from the historical record of panel prices. In fact, the decline of panel in the second half of 2013 was similar to that in the second half of 2010. Although panel manufacturers did not hesitate to sell at low prices in order to clean up inventory, panel prices rebounded one year later. History sometimes repeats itself, especially the TFT-LCD LCD cycle (which means that this wave of panel boom also has the opportunity to reverse upward in 2014)

it is mainly the past experience (from 2010 to 2011). When the panel price tends to stabilize and the inventory drops to a certain extent, the orders of TV manufacturers will increase rapidly, because TV manufacturers will hope to purchase more panels at a lower price to make up for the losses caused by the previous high-cost inventory. However, Xie qinyi emphasized that the causes and effects of TFT-LCD liquid crystal cycle are different. After the panel industry bottomed out in the second half of 2013, will it continue to be depressed in 2014? Reliable performance or reverse upward? We should also continue to observe the product trends and changes in the competitive landscape of the panel industry. Not only Taiwan panel manufacturers continue to introduce new size panels, optimize production and cost efficiency, but Korean panel manufacturers also quickly follow up and launch new size panels. At the same time, the upgrading cycle of panel industry towards large-scale development is also taking place

reviewing the past several LCD cycles/panel business cycles, Xie qinyi explained that the second half of 2008 was a painful memory for the LCD panel industry. At that time, the world was hit by the financial crisis, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the collapse of the market. With the tightening of consumer spending, the supply chain fell into panic and panel prices fell sharply. By the end of 2008, all indicators of the industry had set a historical record, whether it was the profitability/loss of panel manufacturers or the capacity utilization of panel factories (down to 60% or lower)

now, due to the adjustment of panel inventory, the slow demand for TV and the stagnation of (TV) replacement cycle, the situation in the second half of 2013 (panel Market) is similar to that in the second half of 2008; As a result, TV and panel manufacturers are facing the pressure of slowing demand and inventory accumulation, and their operating conditions have attracted market attention. Since the end of June 2013, the panel price has fallen rapidly. According to npddisplaysearch, the panel price may continue to decline until the first quarter of 2014. Although panel manufacturers have not significantly reduced their capacity utilization so far, they have been talking about how to control inventory and curb production

in terms of the current oversupply of panels, China's inventory situation is a critical point. Npddisplaysearch estimated that in September this year, Chinese TV manufacturers held more than 8million pieces of TV panels (especially opencell) and WIP (workinprocess) in their hands, and the inventory was obviously higher than the normal value. Although the peak sales season of the National Day holiday in October in previous years was a good time for Chinese businesses to clear their inventory, according to the survey, the sales volume of Chinese TV during the National Day this year was only about 2.6 million units, a decrease of 5% a year. Even though China's LCD TV inventory has dropped to weeks after the golden week, it is lower than that earlier (at the end of September) 4 weeks of frost resistance, but too much inventory will still put pressure on the subsequent panel price (decline)

however, from the data, Xie qinyi believes that the second half of 2008 should have been the worst period. According to the data recorded by npddisplaysearch, the prices of 32 inch, 40 inch, 42 inch, 46 inch and 55 inch TV panels fell by 44%, 36%, 34%, 28% and 27% respectively in the second half of 2008. In the second half of 2010, the prices of 32 inch, 40 inch, 42 inch, 46 inch and 55 inch TV panels dropped by 24%, 20%, 22%, 18% and 16% respectively. In the second half of 2013, the prices of 32 inch, 40 inch, 42 inch, 46 inch and 55 inch TV panels will fall by 18%, 20%, 24%, 16% and 12% respectively

according to Xie qinyi's assessment, the trend of panel price decline in the second half of 2013 was actually similar to that in the second half of 2010. At that time, panel manufacturers did not hesitate to sell panels at a lower price in order to clean up their inventory. This phenomenon continued until 2011, and the whole supply chain deteriorated due to inventory adjustment. Not only are panel manufacturers struggling with weak demand, but the global LCD TV shipments also decreased by 5% in 2011. Later, the TV panel price remained stable at a low level for several months until it rebounded in april2012 (which means that this wave of panel price decline will have the opportunity to reverse upward in 2014)

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